Comprehensiveness of scenarios in the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Institutes & Expert groups

  • Aalto University
  • MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris
  • POLIMI - Politecnico di Milano

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The comprehensiveness of scenarios for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories has been studied from many perspectives. In this paper, we offer a generalized interpretation thereof through an explicit quantification of residual uncertainty, which makes it possible to derive conclusive statements about the safety of the repository. To support the operational evaluation of comprehensiveness, we develop a probabilistic methodology which uses set inclusion to capture epistemic uncertainties and propagates these in Bayesian networks to obtain bounds on the probability that the reference safety threshold is violated. We also present analyses which can help in achieving comprehensiveness and describe a novel algorithm for the efficient selection of computer-simulation inputs. The methodology is illustrated with a case study on a near-surface repository in Belgium.


Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)561-573
Number of pages561
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2019


  • Safety Assessment, Scenario Analysis, Comprehensiveness, Uncertainty, Bayesian Networks

ID: 5102407