Different types of uncertainty in nuclear emergency management

TY - JOUR

T1 - Different types of uncertainty in nuclear emergency management

AU - French, Simon

AU - Haywood, Stephanie

AU - Oughton, Deborah

AU - Turcanu, Catrinel

N1 - Score=10

PY - 2020/5/20

Y1 - 2020/5/20

N2 - The objective of the CONFIDENCE project has been to identify, assess and communicate the uncertainties that arise in managing and recovering from a nuclear accident. To do that, it is important to be clear on what uncertainty means, how it arises and how we might analyse it. In fact, there are many forms of uncertainty, some of which we can assess with current tools, but some of which are more nebulous and difficult to deal with. Nonetheless, all need to be communicated to the emergency managers. Starting with a review of different categories of uncertainties, and using examples from the CONFIDENCE project, this paper discusses how the various uncertainties are manifested in nuclear emergency management. It concludes with a simple framework for categorising and analysing them. The overall intention is that such a framework could contribute to a broader discussion on identifying and handling uncertainties with nuclear emergency management actors.

AB - The objective of the CONFIDENCE project has been to identify, assess and communicate the uncertainties that arise in managing and recovering from a nuclear accident. To do that, it is important to be clear on what uncertainty means, how it arises and how we might analyse it. In fact, there are many forms of uncertainty, some of which we can assess with current tools, but some of which are more nebulous and difficult to deal with. Nonetheless, all need to be communicated to the emergency managers. Starting with a review of different categories of uncertainties, and using examples from the CONFIDENCE project, this paper discusses how the various uncertainties are manifested in nuclear emergency management. It concludes with a simple framework for categorising and analysing them. The overall intention is that such a framework could contribute to a broader discussion on identifying and handling uncertainties with nuclear emergency management actors.

KW - Radiological emergency

KW - Uncertainties

KW - Decision support

KW - CONFIDENCE

UR - https://ecm.sckcen.be/OTCS/llisapi.dll/open/38786636

U2 - 10.1051/radiopro/2020029

DO - 10.1051/radiopro/2020029

M3 - Article

SP - 1

EP - 6

JO - Radioprotection

JF - Radioprotection

SN - 0033-8451

M1 - 2020029

ER -