Evaluation of the suitability of the land surface model JULES for climate impact studies in Belgian ecosystems

The increasing demand for land and water resources, in conjunction with climate change, are expected to significantly alter the terrestrial ecosystems and, by consequence, the energy, water, and carbon fluxes between land and atmosphere. These changes will vary substantially from region to region and within regions, from ecosystem to ecosystem. Land surface models are important tools for understanding and predicting these changes. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the suitability of the land surface model JULES (Cox et al., 1998) to simulate carbon, water vapour and energy fluxes in Belgian ecosystems, and to analyse the response of the different ecosystems to climatic factors. In this study, the evaluation of the land surface model JULES consists of a thorough sensitivity analysis to the environmental conditions, i.e. soil, vegetation and climate, found in the major Belgian ecosystems. Next, the model is tested against the surface flux data collected for several consecutive years at the different FLUXNET and CarboEurope projects sites in Belgium. So far this study has been restricted to two sites, Lonzée and Vielsalm, both located in the Southern part of Belgium. Lonzée is an agricultural site and, a mixed forest covers the Vielsalm site.