Uncertainty analysis via aggregation operators for cost estimation in a large-scale nuclear project

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Abstract

Cost estimation for large projects can be difficult because of many complex factors and uncertainties involved. It is often the case that only very rough guesses of actual costs may be provided. In this paper, we will examine the various types of uncertainties in the cost estimation problem of a large scale nuclear project, namely, the MYRRHA project at SCK•CEN. We will then use a few examples originated from the conceptual phase of the project to illustrate the practical use of a software package, IDS Cost Estimator, in cost analysis of nuclear systems. It is demonstrated that IDS Cost Estimator can take care of several types of uncertainties in cost estimation and provide user friendly interfaces for data collection, reporting and display. Moreover, several common aggregation operators are extended under the ordered 3-tuple space to achieve aggregation of any items and uncertainty analysis by output of IDS cost estimator.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)375-395
JournalInternational Journal of Nuclear Knowledge Management
Volume2
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2007

Keywords

  • interval uncertainty, probability uncertainty, decision support systems, fuzzy logic, cost estimation, uncertainty analysis, aggregation operator, MYRRHA

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